Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/05/21

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 14 - 20.05.2018,
                 Forecast on 21 - 28.05.2018,
   Carrington Rotation 2003, 2004 (19,22.04.; 16,45.05.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (-1.5 - -1.0) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL.
THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (80 DAYS IN 2018). THE 
ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERI-
OD W = 000 (Wn = 000).  

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WILL BE ON THE VERY 
LOW  AND WITH LARGE PROBABILITY THE SUN WILL SPOTLESS. LIKELY 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. 
4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE 
BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to 
14.05 >1504  >0446 S47W09L007        9 
17.05  1526   1556 S55W55L279       18
20.05 >1711  >0440 S39E32L326        9                     
20.05 >1711  >0440 N23E18L312        8 
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE    R  G  Space Obser.
CH -   S05L025 S05L040  S13L035 S06L018        16.05  5     SDO,SOHO...
CH -   S010L042 S25L060 S40L050 S15L018        18.05  5  G0 SDO,SOHO...
CH +   N55L320 N40L340  N15L325 N12L302 21500  20.05  1     SDO,SOHO...
CH +   S12L302 S15L308  S25L299 S12L294        22.05  1  G0 SDO,SOHO...
The last CH has been appeared on solar disk at 18.05. 
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 05.05/1318 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 24.05.

MAY       14     15     16     17     18     19     20   MAY
Wus      000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7    070    070    070    069    069    070    069
bcg    1.8   1.5   1.0   <1.0 <1.0  <1.0  <1.0   GOES
Sp       000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                   
IMF       -      -      -      -      -       -     -   DSCOVR   
>2   5.7E+8 7.6E+8 5.0E+8 1.3+8 2.5+7 2.4+7 2.8+7   GOES
Ie>2   16341  21333  15663  12809    630    636    626   pfu 
Ap        5      4      4      10     4      3      3    n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc      4      5      5      12     6      5      4    n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS 
BEGAN AT 6.05/1400 UT AND WAS OBSERVED AT 06 - 17.05.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED

THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETT-
LED.

THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARELY  
QUITE, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE (21 -22 MAY) 
DUE TO EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE SOLAR WIND.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov