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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/06/26

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 19 - 25.06.2017,
                 Forecast on 26.06 - 02.07.2017,
            Carrington Rotation 2192 (23,05.06.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (-0,2;  0,7) deg. 
              (S35 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL 20-21.06 AND LOW 
IN OTHER DAYS. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF 
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR 
THE PERIOD IS W=016+5/-4 (Wn=026+7/-7). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE 
SUN 2- 3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VE-
RY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF 
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR 
THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 10+20/-10.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL.  ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE-
REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 4 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to     te      l  . Fl     A        CME/to
21.06 >1722   >0446   S33E05L008       13 
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEAT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G   Space Obser.
  +     Pn   N22L003  N18L015 N30L043       23.06 (2)   SDO, SOHO...
  +  N05L338 S10L325  S11L327 N02L340       28.06  2    SDO, SOHO...
All CH are the family CH of south polar CH; the bay of polar CH - R2;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 23.06/0630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 
0N 5.07.

JUNE    19     20     21     22     23     24     25      JUNE
Wus    026    034    035    023    022    028    020 
F10.7  074    074    074    074    074    074    074
bcg  A5.8   A6.4   A5.9   5.2   A5.1   A4.5   A4.6      GOES
Sp     140    170    120    080    090    080    090  msh   
N              1                      
IMF     -      -      -      -     -/+     +     +      DSCOVR   
>2 1.0+8 1.2E+8 1.3E+8 6.6+6 1.9+7 1.1+7 2.2+6      GOES
Ie>2  2734   2428   3097    811   673    446     213   pfu 
Ap      4      3      4      7     5      9       11   n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc    5      4      6      7     5      11      10   n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS OB-
SERVED 19 - 21.06.  THIS FLUENCE SUDDENLY WEAKEN IMMEDIATELY TWO OR-
DERS PER DAY - A RARE PHENOMENON.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

 ON THE NEXT WEEK THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION BE EX-
PECTED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov