Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/07/16

     Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 09 - 15.07.2018,
                 Forecast on 16 - 23.07.2018,
    Carrington Rotation 2005, 2006 (12,7.06; 09,9.07.2018) 
            Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  WAS ON THE VERI LOW
LEVEL: THE SUN  WAS SPOTLESS (107 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTI-
MATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  (old) FOR PERIOD W=
000 (Wn= 000). 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND
VERY LOW LEVELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE  OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 3 CORONAL MASS 
EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE    R  G  Space Obser.

Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 13.07/1430 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 22.07.

JULY    09     10     11     12     13     14     15   JULY
Wus    000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7  073    072    073    072    073    072    072 
bcg  3.2   2.7   2.9   2.2   3.1   A3.2   2.9  GOES
Sp     000    000    000    000    000    000    000  msh   
N                                       
IMF     -      -      -      -     -/+     +      +   DSCOVR   
>2 1.7E+7 5.5E+6 2.3+6 2.2E+6 3.6+6 3.9+6 5.9E+6  GOES
Ie>2   370    356    119           117   110          pfu 
Ap      2      6      9      9      5      5      3   n  
Dst                                                   n KIOTO
Amsc    3      7      9      7      6      4      4   n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE 
NOT OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY
QUITE AND UNSETTLED LEVELS. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov