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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/08/14

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 07 - 13.08.2017,
                 Forecast on 14 - 21.08.2017,
    Carrington Rotation 2193, 2194 (20.07; 16,48.08.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (3,3; 4,0) deg. 
              (S32 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED,  
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=007+0/-0 (Wn= 011+
0/-0). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP. 

 NEXT WEEK LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  WILL REMAIN AT A VERY 
LOW LEVEL  AND  AFTER  14.08 THE PERIOD OF SPOTLESS SUN WHICH  WILL 
NEXT 2 DAYS TO THE EXIT FROM E-LIMB SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP (behind the 
E-limb 14.08) WILL BEGIN. THERE IS A PROBABILITY THAT SPOTLESS DAYS 
WILL BE OBSERVED  UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY 
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 000+20/-00.  

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A VERY LOW ALL DAYS. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS  OCCURRENCES  THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM 
SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS 1 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
                                 
DSF     to     te      l  . Fl     A        CME/to
10.08 >1655   >1346   S26E71L017       10                    
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  +  N28L108 N08L098  N03L100 N05L116       12.08  2  G0 SDO, SOHO...
CH  +  N50L008 N30L318  N17L023 N22L040       16.08  4     SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 11.08/0430 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 17.08.

AUGUST  07     08     09     10     11     12     13      AUGUST
Wus    011    011    011    011    011    011    011 
F10.7  073    071    072    071    070    070    068
bcg  5.2   3.9   3.5   3.3   3.0   2.7   2.9      GOES
Sp     140    120    130    110    110    110    110  msh   
N                                          
IMF     +      +      +      +     +/-     -      -      DSCOVR   
>2 4.4+8 5.3+8 3.9E+8 3.2+8 1.4+8 2.6+7 3.8+7      GOES
Ie>2  4301  10425   7825   6774   4952    920    978   pfu 
Ap      5      4      4      5      7      11     7    n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc    4      4      5      6      7      10     8    n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GIN 5.08/1405 UT UT AND WAS OBSERVED 05 - 11.08. 

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 14 - 21.08.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov