Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/09/24

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 17 - 23.09.2018,
                  Forecast on 24.09 - 30.10.2018,
    Carrington Rotation 2208, 2209(02,3.09; 29,6.09.2018)
          Earth out of ecliptic (+7.18 - +6.85) deg. 
           (S17 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY 
LOW (SPOTLESS -152 DAYS IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIO-
NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=000 (Wn=000). 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW. LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THREE SOLAR FILAMENTS 
AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
18.09 >0044  >1322  S05E22L158      20
20.09  1526   0613  S43E19L128      16 
23.09 >1546  >0546  N25W54L031      10 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  N50L109 N40L104  N30L141 N35L137  0.1% 29.09  R1     SDO, ACE...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 23.09/13 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS UNSTABLE. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDA-
RY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 05.10. 
------------------------------------------------------------------
SEPTEMBER 17     18     19     20     21     22     23   SEPTEMBER
Wus      000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7    068    068    068    067    067    068    068
bcg   <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0   GOES
Sp       000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                            
IMF       -     -/+     +      +     +/-     -     -/+   DSCOVR   
>2   5.0E+8 2.7E+8 4.0E+8 4.4+8 4.3E+8 7.9+7 2.6+8   GOES
Ie>2   34944  10052   8464   8688  10457  10633   8045   pfu 
Ap        10     6      4      2      9     29      13   n  
Dst         no data for September 2018                   n KIOTO
Amsc      10     5      3      2      6     26      10   n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 12.09/1410 AND 12 - 23.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 24-26.09.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 29, dur.= 30 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF   
BOULDER AND (G1, Ams=26, dur.=12 h.) AND 5 HOURS SUBSTORM (G1) AC-
CORDING IZMIRAN DATA HAVE BEEN ODSERVED 21 - 23.09 AS A RESULT OF 
JOINT INFLUENCE OF SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS 20.09 DISTURBANCE AND  
EARTH's PASSING OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM  OF THE SOLAR NOTHERN CO-
RONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY.  ON OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 
WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNET-
IC CONDITION.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov