Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, the Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2018/02/19

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
              Highlights on 05- 10.02.2018,
                Forecast on 11 - 19.01.2018,
  Carrington Rotation 2200, 2001 (27,28.01; 23.62.02.2018)
        Earth out of ecliptic (-6.3 - -6.8) deg. 
             (S33 - N23 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL, AND
18.02 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (19 DAYS ON CURRENT YEAR. THE ESTIMA-
TED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE  OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=011+10
/-8 (Wn= 018+15/-6). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 SMALL, RELATIVE-
LY ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.    

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOWLE- 
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.  

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT 12.02 AND VERY LOW - IN 
OTHER DAYS. NO EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENTS REGISTERED ON PERIOD. 
4 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED 12 AND 17.02.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     
        to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
  -  S00L170 S03L175  S10L151 S05L143       11.02   1    SOHO, SDO...
  -  N20L189 N12L204  N10L189 S05L163 12800 15.02   4    SOHO, SDO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 16.02/2040 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD, BUT ALL PERIOD THE SIGN OF SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE AND FREQUEN-
TLY CHANGING. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 31.02.

FEBRUARY  11     12     13     14     15     16     17     18  FEBRUARY
Wus      024    026    020    018    015    012    010    000
F10.7    078    079    076    075    073    072    069    070
bcg    6.3   1.0   A5.8   A5.0   A4.7   A4.3   A4.3   A3.6  GOES
Sp       230    230    180    140    100    040    040    000  msh   
N                                                   
IMF       +      +      +     ±    -/+    ±    -       -   DSCOVR   
>2   7.3E+4 8.5E+4 7.5E+4 6.0+4 6.7+4 6.2+4 2.1+6 6.2+7  GOES
Ie>2                                                     2798  pfu 
Ap        2      3      3      2      10     6      12     16  n  
Dst                                                            n KIOTO
Amsc      2      4      3      2      17     7      9      18  n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT
18.02. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 18 - 23.02.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET IN THE PERIOD, BUT CME (12.02) COMING 
FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION MARKED INTENSITY G2 15.02 SUBSTORM 
DURATION < 3 h. ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA AND G0 ACCORDING TO THE 
CENTER IN BOULDER DATA, AND 18.02 GEOMAGNETIC CODITION WAS ACTIVE.   

 NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
19.02 ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS POSSIBLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov