Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, the Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/12/11

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2017 HAS MADE 
                           Wnov. = 3.4         5.7(n) 
THAT GIVES FOR 98 MONTHS (2017, APRIL) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE 
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER 
              W*y  =   14.0;    23.1 - new system 
              W*apr.  =  14.9;    24.9 - new system 
 On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the 
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers 
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the 
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the 
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. 

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE     -     I 2009  with W*=1.8; (2.2)  
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, 
NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 74 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

      1..  0m   6..  0m  11..  0m  16.. 16   21..  0m  26.. 17M
      2..  0m   7..  0m  12..  0m  17.. 25   22..  0m  27.. 16
      3..  0m   8..  0m  13..  0m  18.. 15   23..  0m  28.. 15
      4..  0m   9..  0m  14.. 13   19..  0m  24..  0m  29.. 13
      5..  0m  10..  0m  15.. 15   20..  0m  25.. 15   30.. 11
      
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 
2017, NOVEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, MAY
               F10.7nov. = 72.0            F*10.7may  = 77.7 
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2017, NOVEMBER, AND 
SMOOTHES ON 2016, MAY
               Ap nov. = 9.5               Ap*may = 11.3
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      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
              Highlights on 27.11 - 03.12.2017,
                Forecast on 04 - 11.12.2017,
  Carrington Rotation 2197, 2198 (03,61.12; 30,94.12.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (2.5 - 1.9) deg. 
             (S30 - N25 is geoeffectiveness zone)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THE SUN WAS
SPOTLESS ON 1-3.11 (90 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE CURRENT YEAR). THE 
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE PERIOD 
W= 003+5/-3 (Wn= 005+7/-5). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK ONE SMALL 
AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK THE  LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WITH HIGH PROBABILITY 
WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS WITH ONE SMALL STEADY SUN-
SPOTS GROUP WHICH COMES 11.12 TO THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. MOST LI-
KELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.  

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL.  NO EJECTION  OF 
SOLAR FILAMENT WAS OBSERVED. ACCORDING TO DATA FROM SOHO AND STE-
REO CORONOGRAPHS >9 CME HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
                                 
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  +  N50L053 N48L057  N25L034 N20L039  31600 05.12  5 G1  SDO, SOHO...
CH  +  N50L347 N48L007  N12L302 N18L299  17900 11.12  3     SDO, SOHO...
CH  -  S05L268 S28L298  S30L270 S15L263        14.12  6     SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 04.12/0115 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 25.12.

DECEMBER  04     05     06     07     08     09     10    DECEMBER
Wus      000    000    013    011    000    000    011 
F10.7    068    068    068    068    070    071    072
bcg    3.1   3.1   A3.3   A3.5   A3.3   A3.7   A4.5      GOES
Sp       000    000    010    010    000    000    010  msh   
N                       1                           1 
IMF      -/+     +      +      +      +      +      +      DSCOVR   
>2   4.6E+6 5.3E+6 7.3E+7 1.3+8 1.4+8 1.4+8 1.3E+8      GOES
Ie>2     175    365   3260   3752   3375   4184   2473  pfu 
Ap        5      29     10     10     5      3      2    n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc      16     27     17     11     4      5      4    n IZMIRAN 
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>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE-
GUN 6/1340 UT AND 6-10.12 WERE OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 11 - 14.12.

AS EXPECTED, THE LONG MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=28, dur. =39 h.) 
ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER IT WAS OCCURENCE ON DECEMBER 4-6, 
HOWEVER ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BROKEN UP TO 
THREE INTERVALS: SUBSTORM (G1, dur.<9 h.) 4 - 5.12, MINOR MAGNETIC 
STORM (G1, Ams= 38, dur.= 12 h.) 5-6.12, AND 6-HOUR SUBSTORM (G1) AT 
THE END OF THE DAY 6.12. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UN-
SETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov