Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2024/03/04

                      25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
                 THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM      

 THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2024 HAS MADE   
               Wfeb =  82.9        124.6(in new system)
THAT GIVES FOR 44 MONTH (AUGUST 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR 
CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
              W*aug = 82.46        124.0 - Χ ΞΟΧΟΚ ΣΙΣΤΕΝΕ   
              W*jul = 82.7         124.3 - Χ ΞΟΧΟΚ ΣΙΣΤΕΝΕ  
 
 On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots  and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link).  
 Daily, monthly average and smoothed values of W in the old system 
~close to the true ones can be obtained by multiplying by k=0.665.
 
THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE  -  I 2020  with W*=1.3; (1.8n)  
THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25  -  2020 01 - 2021 10
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE III - VI 2024 - Wmax=90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  I - VI 2031;
   
PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR FEBRUARY 2024
(62 odservatories) : 
      1..118    6..157   11..167ν  16..145   21.. 51m  26..137
      2..123    7..150   12..157   17..120   22.. 58   27..120
      3..127    8..165   13..138   18..102   23..106   28..131
      4..137    9..129   14..143   19.. 73   24..111   29..128
      5..157   10..150   15..147   20.. 54   25..115

  THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) 
ON FEBRUARY 2024, AND SMOOTHES ON AUGUST 2023    
                F10.7feb = 173.28         F*10.7aug= 158.5
   THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON FEBRUARY 2024, AND  
SMOOTHES ON AUGUST 2023                
                Ap feb=5.6             Ap*aug = 10.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
   REVIEW OF THE STATE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA, 
                AND THEIR IMPACTS ON NEAR-EARTH SPACE
                         on 01 - 29.02.2024
     Carrington Rotations 2280-2281 (18,27.01-14.61.02.2024)
               Earth out of ecliptic (-6 - -7 deg) 
                (S35 - N28 is zone of geoefficiency)
                              
 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO LOW 
LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 35 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 
INCLUDING ONE BIG AND TWO MEDIUM SIZES AND UP 8 LOCALIZED ON THE 
SOUTH HEMISPHERE.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON HIGH AND LOW LEVELS. 5 FLARE WERE OF X-RAY
CLASS X, 50- CLASS M AND 358- CLASS C, 12 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 
AND 268 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, FIVE OF THEM WAS TYPE IV (angular 
width 360 deg), TWO- CLASS III(180-270 deg), 23- TYPE II (90-180 
deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/Οp  J/m-2
20240202 0252 0301 0305 S18E60L104 M1.2	   3.7E-03 13571  RII/3|144
20240204 1140 1153 1208 S15E86L055 M1.4/SF 1.5E-02 13576                   
20240204 1622 1638 1646 S15E79L055 M1.5    1.5E-02 13576               
20240204 1705 1712 1719 S15E77L055 M1.3    1.7E-03 13576               
20240204 1816 1829 1843 S36W46L178 M1.1    1.2E-02 13575               
20240204 2052 2057 2101 S20E83L055 M1.2    4.4E-03 13576  RII         
20240204 2220 2228 2234 S14E86L055 M2.1    1.5E-02 13576              
20240204 2234 2237 2242 S15E73L055 M2.7    1.2E-02 13576
20240204 2245 2302 2248	S09E89L055 M1.8            13576
20240205 0413 0447 0428	S16E74L055 M2.2/SF 1.8E-03 13576  
20240205 0436 0456 0438	S15E71L055 M1.5	           13576  
20240205 0610 0626 0622	S20E77L055 M1.5/SF 6.4E-03 13576  
20240206 0215 0247 0228	S39W62L178 M2.2	   6.3E-03 13575  RII/1|0431 IV/2
20240206 0237 0331 0312	S40W63L178 M4.2	   1.3E-01 13575  RII/2|1063 IV/2
20240206 1838 1849 1907 S36W72L178 M1.3    1.9E-02 13575             
20240207 0304 0349 0331	S39W78L178 M5.2/SF 1.4E-01 13575         
20240207 1741 1822 1805	S15E38L055 M1.4	   3.0E-02 13576  
20240208 1241 1312 1337 S18E28L055 M3.4    7.5E-02 13576         
20240208 1411 1418 1425 S15W83L172 M1.2    8.9E-03 13564            
20240208 1517 1523 1527 S15E25L055 M1.8/1F 5.8E-03 13576            
20240208 1856 1902 1906 S15E24L055 M1.3/1F 3.5E-03 13576              
20240208 2316 0014 2355	S35W85L178 M4.0/SF 7.6E-03 13575         EPL
20240209 0036 0041 0045 S16E17L055 M3.1/1N 2.8E-03 13576              
20240209 0042 0051 0100 S14E06L055 M1.5/SF 1.1E-02 13576          
20240209 1253 1332 1314	S37W85L178 X3.4/SF 4.3E-01 13575  RIV/2           
20240209 1754 1807 1800	S14E07L055 M1.2	   7.4E-03 13576              CME  
20240210 0042 0100 0051	S14E05L055 M1.5/SF 1.1E-02 13576           
20240210 0304 0411 0354	S15E88L178 M3.3	   9.6E-02 13575 RIV/2     CMEIV/0336
20240210 2256 2314 2307	S12W12L055 M9.0	   4.5E-02 13576 RII/3|1856 IV/3 CMEIV/2400
20240211 2235 2250 2245	N10E88L    M1.1	   5.2E-03        
20240212 0323 0348 0353 S17W26L055 M6.5/2B 2.8E-02 13576                      
20240212 1250 1308 1321 S16W28L055 M1.1/1F 1.4E-02 13576                      
20240212 1531 1548 1603 S12W34L055 M1.4/1F 2.0E-02 13576                      
20240212 2035 2117 2151 N28E86L    M2.6    9.3E-02                  
20240212 2200 2303 2204	S14W36L055 M1.6/SF         13576
20240214 0302 0310 0323 N07W26L034 M1.0    9.5E-03 13582 RII /IV   
20240214 0726 0742 0735	S17W57L055 M1.0/SF 5.6E-03 13576          
20240215 1650 1707 1721 S13W79L055 M1.8    2.1E-02 13576
20240216 0239 0251 0257 S13W88L055 M1.5    8.1E-03 13576
20240216 0642 0658 0653	S19W82L055 X2.5/1N 8.4E-02 13576  RII/3|753 IV/2 CME
20240216 2157 2216 2209	S14W88L055 M3.0	   1.6E-02 13576 
20240221 2252 2307 2314 N17E39L224 X1.8    9.9E-02 13590                
20240221 2358 0014 0031 S35E85L224 M1.5    2.6E-02 13590
20240222 0617 0632 0640 N16E35L224 X1.7/2B 8.8E-02 13590          
20240222 2029 2046 2103 N18E29L224 M4.8/2B 5.3E-02 13590          
20240222 2208 2234 2243 N17E27L224 X6.3    4.5E-01 13590          
20240223 1312 1328 1354 N16E19L224 M1.0    1.9E-02 13590          
20240223 1541 1553 1606 N18E18L224 M1.4/1N 1.8E-02 13590     
20240223 1726 1747 1807 N18E18L224 M2.6/1N 3.9E-02 13590             
20240224_0621 0644 0634 N18E08L224 M4.5	   3.3E-02 13590            
20240224_1032 1113 1057	N15E08L224 M2.2	   2.7E-02 13590             
20240224_1103 1125 1118	N18E05L224 M3.6	   3.8E-02 13590             
20240224_1154 1204 1159	N16E10L224 M1.0	   5.1E-03 13590             
20240225 1647 1740 1722	N14W07L224 M2.1/1N 4.6E-02 13590           
20240228 1624 1854 2115 N19W58L224 M1.5    1.6E-01 13590

DSF (EPL) to   te localization  l deg.  Fl    AR     CMEtype/to
20240204  0917   0935          EPL    0.11        13576
20240205 >0010  >1454  S55E23L143     8  
20240206  0812  >1543  N43E10LL206   18                 CME  
20240208  2000  <0649  S36W06L076     9  
20240209  0012   0214  S35W85L346 EPL 0.06   M4.0 13575
20240210  0613         S26E05L059                 13576 CME/0649
20240211  0640         N28E19L061     15                CME/0812
20200216  0200         N31W18L317     20                CME/0312
20240221  1500         NW-quadrant   >10               
20240221  1542   1604  SE-limb EPL  0.56/B.9A
20240221  1725   1743  N23W43L226      31 
20240228  0900         S11E30L216      12      C5.1 13592
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end  Sch   EE      R G  Spacecrafts 
CH + S10L161 S37L155 S65L178 S50L182 4.8% 02.02 2  -  SDO,HINOTORI
CH + S48L069 S60L029 S69L079 S67L136 2,5%       1  -  SDO,HINOTORI 
CH - N15L273 S25L227 S30L247 N05L279 3,70%      6  -    SDO,HINOTORI 
CH - N65L241 N60L230 N27L265 N50L271 2,40%      3  -    SDO,HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 IN JANUARY THE EARTH PASSED NTXT THE SECTOR BOUNDARIES OF THE INTER-
PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS: 
 20240107 +/- 1753 UT;  20240115 -/+ 0945;  20240123  +/- 1940;   

Pr>10 MeV: to - 29.01/0300 UT; max-136 pfu 29.01/1800; te -  2.02/19  
           to - 09.02/1530 UT; max-187 pfu 09.02/2355; te - 12.02/0550   
           to - 12.02/0554 UT; max-118 pfu 13.02/0615; te - 20.02/24
           to - 16.02/0730 UT  max-  7 pfu 16.02/1030; te - 18.02/0800

 A HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRONS WITH E>2 MeV NO
OBSERVED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL PERIOD.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov