Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/03/25

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 4 - 10.03.2019,
                Forecast on 18 - 24.03.2019,
          Carrington Rotation 2215 (8,8.04.2019)
          Earth out of ecliptic (-7.6 - -7.4) deg. 
          (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=14+15/-6 (Wn=
23+24/-10). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC TWO SUNSPOT GROUPS  HAVE BEEN 
OBSERVED. 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WILL AT VERY LOW LEVEL AND 
THE SUN IS EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. NO FILAMENT EJECTION 
AND SEVEN CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (20.03) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to     te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser. 
CH  -  N18L188 N05L213 S15L188 S05L178 6.1% 28.03 R7   G1  SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 20.03/0647 UT EARTH  IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 28.03.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MARCH     18     19     20     21     22     23     24   MARCH
Wus     013    015    028    049    027    022    014
F10.7   070    070    077    080    082    079    075
bcg  <1.0  <1.0   1.5   5.5   1.7   1.2   9.6  GOES
Sp      010    020    060    220    420    280    060  msh   
N        1             1                        
IMF      -      -     +/-     +      +      +      +   DSCOVR   
>2  2.7E+7 420E+7 2.6E+7 3.6+7 4.0+7 4.5E+7 5.3+7  GOES
Ie>2    695   1367   1551    737    820    813    955  pfu 
Ap       3      7      5      2      1      1      3   n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc     5      9      8      3      2      2      2   n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

HIGH (and after 2.03 - extremal) THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX 
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT 19 - 20.03 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.   
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX  AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 28.03.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MEDIUM LATITUDES REMAINS QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED.

NEXT PERIOD THE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLEDED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION IS EXPECTED.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov