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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/10/16

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 02 - 08.10.2017,
                 Forecast on 09 - 16.10.2017,
  Carrington Rotation 2195; 2196 (12,73.09; 10.01.10.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (6.7 - 6,2) deg. 
              (S25 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL (SPOTLESS DAYS-
63 IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA-
LUE OF  THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM 
(old) FOR THE PERIOD W= 002+0/-2 (Wn= 002+010/-2). ON THE VISIBLE 
SOLAR DISK ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  WILL REMAIN ON VERY 
LOW LEVEL.  MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS 
W=010+10/-10.  

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FI-
LAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES ON THIS PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA 
FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 14 CME, ONE - TYPE II (angular 
with 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to      te        l  .  Fl    A    CME/to
12.10  0959  1410  S46E13L307       10 
14.10 >1246 >0834  S47W03L297        8
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  +  N33L017 N43L312  N27L012 N30L027       11.09  6 G1  SDO, SOHO...
CH  +  N28L022 N20L017  N15L029 N18L032       10.09  3 G1  SDO, SOHO...
CH  +  N55L281 N25L276  N20L281 N30L289       18.10  1     SDO, SOHO...
CH  -  N05L218 S20L233  S31L243 S15L253       21.10  5 G0  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 10.10/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 30.10.

OCTOBER   09     10     11     12     13     14     15    OCTOBER
Wus      000    000    000    000    000    000    012 
F10.7    072    071    070    070    070    069    070
bcg    7.7   2.1   A1.1   A1.4   A0.0   A1.8   A2.5      GOES
Sp       000    000    000    000    000    000    010  msh   
N                                                    
IMF      -/+     +      +      +      +      +      +       DSCOVR   
>2   2.0+7  2.4+7 1.7E+6 5.4+7 1.1+8 7.6+8 1.1+9      GOES
Ie>2     394    534    252   2482   4987  32632  59298   pfu 
Ap        3      3      31     31     43     32     28   n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc      4      4      27     25     34     28     21   n IZMIRAN 
---------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE-
GIN 12.10/1350 UT AND 12 - 15.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 16 - 23.10.

 LONG SMALL MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 35, dur. = 51 h.) ACCORDING TO 
THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND TWO MINOR (G1, Ams = 28, dur. = 15 h.) 
AND (G0, Ams =27, dur. = 18 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA ARE NOTED 11 
-12.10, AND ALREADY 13 - 15.09 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER THE 
FOLLOWING MAGNETIC STORM IS REGISTERED (G2, Ams=47, dur.= 33 h) WHICH 
BY DATA IZMIRAN HAS INCLUDED TWO STORMS: MODERATED (G2, Ams=51, dur.= 
15 h). AND MINOR (G1, Ams=31, dur.= 18 h). ON OCTOBER 15 ACCORDING TO 
THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA THE FOLLOWING SMALL MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED 
(G1, Ams=32, dur. =18 h). IN IZMIRAN DATA WERE NOTED ONLY SEPARATE SUB-
STORMS. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET. 
  
 NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL 
DAYS, EXCEPT 18 - 19.10, WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM 
FROM THE FAMILY OF CORONAL HOLES "+" POLARITY ON NORTHEN HEMISPHERE.  
PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 60%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov