Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/11/12

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 05 - 11.11.2018,
                  Forecast on 12 - 18.11.2018,
              Carrington Rotation 2210(26,10.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (+5.52 - +5.32) deg. 
             (S23 - N24 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY 
LOW. THE SUNSPOT OBSERVED 11.11 ONLY  (SPOTLESS - 190 DAYS IN THIS 
YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 001
+0/-1 (Wn = 001+0/-1).  THERE IS ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN 
OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE CORONAL MASS EJEC-
TIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH -   N18L188 N05L193  N00L195 N10L178   1.4% 9.10   2 G0  SOHO,SDO...
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 8.11/1823 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD,  BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR  IS VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT STABLE 
SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 9.11.

--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
NOVEMBER 05     06     07     08     09     10     11    NOVEMBER
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    011  
F10.7   068    069    069    070    069    069    070  
bcg  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0     GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    010      msh   
N                                             
IMF      +      +     +/~    +/-     -      -      -     DSCOVR   
>2  5.5E+7 2.2E+8 2.9E+8 1.3+8 1.3+8 3.1E+6     -     GOES
Ie>2                                                      pfu 
Ap       35     10     10     10     10     13     7      n  
Dst                                                       n KIOTO
Amsc     26     5      8      11     16     15     8      n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
5.11/1635 UT AND 5 - 11.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 14 - 19.11.

MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM WHICH HAS BEGUN IN THE SECOND HALF 4.11 (G2, 
Ams=50, dur.=18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G1, Ams=
44, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, THERE WAS BY THE EXPECTED 
THE REACTION OF THE MAGNETOSPHERE  TO PASSING OF SOLAR PLASMA  HIGH-
SPEED STREAM  FROM  TRANS-EQUATORIAL "+" POLARITY CORONAL HOLE. THE 
FOLLOWING HIGH-SPEED STREAM ALREADY  FROM THE CORONAL HOLE "-" POLA-
RITY HAS CAUSED 9 -10.11 ONLY INTENSIVE (G1) SUBSTORM (dur 9 h.) AC-
CORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND PULSE SEPARATE (~3 h) SUBSTORM ACCORDING 
TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION RE-
MAINED UNSETTLED.

 THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION. 
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov