----------------------------------------------------------------------------- óòåäîåíåóñþîïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá íáòô 2019 Ç. WÍÁÒÔ = 5.5 9.1(n) þôï äá³ô äìñ 117 íåóñãá (2018, ïëôñâòø) òáú÷éôéñ ôåëõýåçï 24 óïìîåþîïçï ãéëìá óçìáöåîîïå óòåäîåíåóñþîïå þéóìï ðñôåî W*ÏËÔ. = 4.1 6.9 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*ÓÅÎ. = 4.0 6.6 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ó 1 ÉÀÌÑ 2015 Ç. ãÅÎÔÒ × âÒÀÓÓÅÌÅ ÐÅÒÅÛ£Ì ÎÁ ÎÏ×ÕÀ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÕ ÐÏÄÓÞ£ÔÁ ÏÔÎÏ- ÓÉÔÅÌØÎÙÈ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ÐÑÔÅÎ É, ÐÒÁËÔÉÞÅÓËÉ, ×ÓÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ ÓÍÅÎÉÌÉÓØ ×Ï- ×Ó£Í ÐÒÏÎÕÍÅÒÏ×ÁÎÎÏÍ ÒÑÄÅ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÷ÏÌØÆÁ (ÓÍ. ÐÏ ÓÓÙÌËÅ). [åÖÅÄÎÅ×ÎÏÅ, ÓÒÅÄÎÅÍÅÓÑÞÎÏÅ É ÓÇÌÁÖÅÎÎÏÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ W × ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ÂÌÉÚËÏÅ Ë ÉÓÔÉÎÎÏÍÕ (× ÆÁÚÅ ÍÉÎÉÍÕÍÁ) ÍÏÖÎÏ ÐÏÌÕÞÉÔØ, ÕÍÎÏÖÁÑ ÎÁ ËÏÜÆÆÉÃÉÅÎÔ k = 0.6] óÌÕÖÂÁ óÏÌÎÃÁ SWPC NOAA × Ó×ÏÉÈ ÅÖÅÎÅÄÅÌØÎÙÈ ÔÁÂÌÉÃÁÈ "Recent Solar Indices" ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/weekly/RecentIndices.txt ÐÒÏÄÏÌÖÁÅÔ ÐÒÉÄÅÒÖÉ×ÁÔØÓÑ ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÙ, ÐÏÜÔÏÍÕ Ñ ÄÁÀ ÚÁ ÐÒÅÄÙÄÕÝÉÊ ÍÅÓÑà W* ÉÓÐÒÁ×ÌÅÎÎÏÅ, ÅÓÌÉ ÅÓÔØ ÎÅÏÂÈÏÄÉÍÏÓÔØ. îáþáìï 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé - ñî÷áòø 2009 Ç., W*min = 1.8 (2.2Î) ÷òåíñ íáëóéíõíá ôåëõýåçï 24 ãéëìá óá - áðòåìø 2014 Ç., W*max = 81.9 (116.4Î) ëïîåã 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé (ôïþëá íéîéíõíá) - I - VI 2020 Ç. äÒÕÇÉÅ ÐÒÏÇÎÏÚÙ: SM : SIDC classical method: based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - ÄÅËÁÂÒØ 2019; CM : SIDS combined method: the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - ÏËÔÑÂÒØ 2018; NOAA: - ÆÅ×ÒÁÌØ 2019. ðÏÓÌÅÄÎÉÅ Ä×Á, ÎÁ ÍÏÊ ×ÚÇÌÑÄ, ÎÅÁÄÅË×ÁÔÎÙ, ÔÁË ËÁË ÔÁËÉÈ ËÏÒÏÔËÉÈ ÎÉÚËÉÈ óã ÎÅ ÎÁÂÌÀÄÁÌÏÓØ....... îÁÂÌÀÄÁÅÍÙÅ ÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÙÅ ÓÔÒÕËÔÕÒÙ, ÓÏÏÔ×ÅÔÓÔ×ÕÀÝÉÅ 25 óã (~20), ÍÏÖÎÏ Õ×ÉÄÅÔØ http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html íåöäõîáòïäîïå åöåäîå÷îïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî (× ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅ- ÍÅ) úá áðòåìø 2019 Ç. óïçìáóîï äáîîùí 70 óïìîåþîùè ïâóåò÷áôïòéê: 1.. 14 6.. 0 11.. 12 16.. 11 21.. 5 26.. 0 2.. 17 7.. 11 12.. 13 17.. 16 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 19 8.. 12 13.. 16 18.. 24í 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 11 9.. 12 14.. 14 19.. 24í 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 5 10.. 13 15.. 12 20.. 11 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 6, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê îáâìàäáåíùê ðïôïë òáäéïéúìõþåîéñ îá 10 ÓÍ (2800 MHz) úá áðòåìøì 2019 Ç. é óçìáöåîîùê úá ïëôñâòø 2018 Ç. FÁÐÒ. = 72.4 F*ÏËÔ. = 70.3 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê ðòåä÷áòéôåìøîùê áÒ-éîäåëó úá áðòåìø 2019 Ç. é óçìáöåî- îùê úá ïëôñâòø 2018 Ç. ðï äáîîùí çåïíáçîéôîïçï ãåîôòá ÷ ðïôóäáíå áÒ ÁÐÒ.= 6.1 áÒ*ÏËÔ. = 7.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ïâúïò óïóôïñîéñ óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé, çåïüææåëôé÷îùè ñ÷ìåîéê, é éè ÷ïúäåêóô÷éê îá ïëïìïúåíîïå ëïóíéþåóëïå ðòïóôòáîóô÷ï îá ðåòéïä 29.04 - 05.05.2019Ç. é ðòïçîïú îá 06 - 13.05.2019 Ç. ëüòòéîçôïîï÷óëéê ïâïòïô 2216, 2217 (08,8.04; 06,0.05.2019) úåíìñ ÷îå üëìéðôéëé: (-5.3 - -4.7) ÇÒÁÄ. (ÚÏÎÁ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ S30 - N20) ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø óïìîãá âùìá îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. óïìîãå âùìï âåóðñôåîîùí 29.04 -02.05 (74 óõôïë ÷ 2019 Ç.). òáóþ³ô- îïå, óòåäîåå úîáþåîéå ïôîïóéôåìøîïçï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî ÷ íåö- äõîáòïäîïê óéóôåíå úá ðåòéïä óïóôá÷éìï W=3+4/-3 (Wn=5+6/-5). îá ÷é- äéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá ó 3.05 ïäîá çòõððá ðñôåî óòåäîåê ÷åìéþéîù (ïäé- îïþîïå ðñôîï) ÷ óå÷åòîïí ðïìõûáòéé, ÷ôïòïê ïâïòïô áëôé÷îïê çòõððù îáþáìá íåóñãá. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âõäåô ïóôá÷áôø- óñ îá îéúëïí é ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îñè. òáóþ³ôîïå, óòåäîåå úá ðåòéïä úîáþåîéå ïôîïóéôåìøîïçï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî W=010+20/-10. ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âùìá îá îéúëïí õòï÷îå 3-4.05 é îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå ÷ ïóôáìøîùå äîé. ÷ùâòïóï÷ óïìîåþîùè ÷ïìïëïî îå îáâìàäáìïóø. ïôíåþåîï âïìåå 14 ëïòïîáìøîùè ÷ùâòïóï÷ ÷åýåóô÷á, ÷óå ó ÷ïóôïþîïçï ìéí- âá ó õçìá ìïëáìéúáãéé ÷ùûåäûåê çòõððù ðñôåî. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ÷óðùûëé âáììï÷ ïô í1 to tm te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME/to ÒÅÎÔ/ÏÐ J/m-2 ÷ó÷* to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to * - ×ÙÂÒÏÓÙ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ×ÏÌÏËÏÎ ---------------------------------------------------------------------- îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø ïöéäáåôóñ îá ïþåîø îéúëïí é îéúëïí õòï÷îñè. îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäáìéóø ëïòïîáìøîùå äùòù ó ëïïòäéîáôáíé: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅà å ËÏÎÅà S ËÏÎÅà W ËÏÎÅà Sch ïëð R G KA óî - N10L108 S02L121 S28L106 S15L083 <10.6% 02.05 4 - ACE SOHO... óî - S00L032 S15L045 S25L038 S12L020 3.2% 05.05 1(3)- ACE SOHO... óî - N10L235 S10L234 S40L202 S20L182 <13.4 23.04 8 - ACE SOHO... Sch - ÐÌÏÝÁÄØ ëä × % ÐÌÏÝÁÄÉ ×ÉÄÉÍÏÊ ÐÏÌÕÓÆÅÒÙ ×ÂÌÉÚÉ ÃÅÎÔÒÁÌØÎÏÇÏ ÍÅ- ÒÉÄÉÁÎÁ ÐÏ https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - ÎÅÔ ÄÁÎÎÙÈ; ïëð - ÄÁÔÁ ×ÏÚÍÏÖÎÏÇÏ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÏÇÏ ×ÏÚÍÕÝÅÎÉÑ × ïëð; R - ÓËÏÌØËÏ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÏ× ÎÁÂÌÀ- ÄÁÅÔÓÑ; G(0-5)-ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÏÓÔØ ÎÁ ÐÒÏÛÌÏÍ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÅ (ÓÒÅÄÎÉÅ ÛÉÒoÔÙ); A - ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÁÑ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ÏÂÓÔÁÎÏ×ËÁ. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- C 23.04/22 UT úåíìñ îáèïäéôóñ ÷ "-" óåëôïòå íåöðìáîåôîïçï íáçîéôîïçï ðïìñ. óìåäõàýõà óåëôïòîõà çòáîéãõ -/+ úåíìñ äïìöîá ðòïêôé 15.05. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- áðòåìø 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 áðòåìø Wus 000 000 000 000 011 012 013 F10.7 067 069 068 068 070 072 074 èbcg á5.9 á5.7 á5.9 á6.5 A6.0 B1.2 B1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 260 270 280 msh N 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 2.5E+6 2.6E+6 1.8E+6 6.2+7 1.7å+8 4.3E+7 4.7å+7 GOES Ie>2 2978 6155 pfu Ap 5 5 11 12 7 10 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 6 13 9 4 11 5 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 -ÐÉËÏ×ÙÊ ÐÏÔÏË ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× Ó å>2 MeV ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ × e/(cm2-ster-day); Ie>2-ÍÁËÓÉÍÁÌØÎÁÑ ÉÎÔÅÎÓÉ×ÎÏÓÔØ ÐÏÔÏËÁ ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× ÎÁ ÇÅÏÓÔÁÃÉÏÎÁÒÎÙÈ ÏÒÂÉÔÁÈ ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ ÐÏ ÄÁÎÎÙÍ GOES 15 × (electrons/cm2-s-sr) - ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ Ó ÐÏÔÏËÏÍ >/=1000 pfu). ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòïîï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ îá çåï- óôáãéïîáòîùè ïòâéôáè îîáþáìóñ 02.05. é îáâìàäáìóñ 2-5.05. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòï- îï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ ïöéäáåôóñ 6-13.05. çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá îá óòåäîéè ûéòïôáè ïóôá÷áìáóø óðïëïêîïê é óìáâï÷ïúíõý³îîïê. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå îáéâïìåå ÷åòïñôîá óðïëïêîáñ é óìáâï÷ïúíõý³îîáñ çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá. ïâúïò é ðòïçîïú óïóôá÷ìåî ðï íáôåòéáìáí óìõöâù óïìîãá âïõìäåò, óûá http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ãåîôòá óâïòá é ïâòáâïôëé óïìîåþîùè éîäåëóï÷, âòàóóåìø, âåìøçéñ http://sidc.oma.be/, éúíéòáî (ôòïéãë, òïóóéñ) http://www.izmiran.ru ÷.î. éÛËÏ×