----------------------------------------------------------------------------- óòåäîåíåóñþîïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá éàìø 2019 Ç. WÉÀÌØ = 0,5* 0.9 (n) þôï äá³ô äìñ 120 íåóñãá (2019, ñî÷áòø) òáú÷éôéñ ôåëõýåçï 24 óïìîåþîïçï ãéëìá óçìáöåîîïå óòåäîåíåóñþîïå þéóìï ðñôåî W*ÑÎ×. = 3.2 5.4 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*ÄÅË. = 3.6 6.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ó 1 ÉÀÌÑ 2015 Ç. ãÅÎÔÒ × âÒÀÓÓÅÌÅ ÐÅÒÅÛ£Ì ÎÁ ÎÏ×ÕÀ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÕ ÐÏÄÓÞ£ÔÁ ÏÔÎÏ- ÓÉÔÅÌØÎÙÈ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ÐÑÔÅÎ É, ÐÒÁËÔÉÞÅÓËÉ, ×ÓÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ ÓÍÅÎÉÌÉÓØ ×Ï- ×Ó£Í ÐÒÏÎÕÍÅÒÏ×ÁÎÎÏÍ ÒÑÄÅ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÷ÏÌØÆÁ (ÓÍ. ÐÏ ÓÓÙÌËÅ). [åÖÅÄÎÅ×ÎÏÅ, ÓÒÅÄÎÅÍÅÓÑÞÎÏÅ É ÓÇÌÁÖÅÎÎÏÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ W × ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ÂÌÉÚËÏÅ Ë ÉÓÔÉÎÎÏÍÕ (× ÆÁÚÅ ÍÉÎÉÍÕÍÁ) ÍÏÖÎÏ ÐÏÌÕÞÉÔØ, ÕÍÎÏÖÁÑ ÎÁ ËÏÜÆÆÉÃÉÅÎÔ k = 0.6] óÌÕÖÂÁ óÏÌÎÃÁ SWPC NOAA × Ó×ÏÉÈ ÅÖÅÎÅÄÅÌØÎÙÈ ÔÁÂÌÉÃÁÈ "Recent Solar Indices" ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/weekly/RecentIndices.txt ÐÒÏÄÏÌÖÁÅÔ ÐÒÉÄÅÒÖÉ×ÁÔØÓÑ ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÙ, ÐÏÜÔÏÍÕ Ñ ÄÁÀ ÚÁ ÐÒÅÄÙÄÕÝÉÊ ÍÅÓÑà W* ÉÓÐÒÁ×ÌÅÎÎÏÅ, ÅÓÌÉ ÅÓÔØ ÎÅÏÂÈÏÄÉÍÏÓÔØ. îáþáìï 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé - ñî÷áòø 2009 Ç., W*min = 1.8 (2.2Î) ÷òåíñ íáëóéíõíá ôåëõýåçï 24 ãéëìá óá - áðòåìø 2014 Ç., W*max = 81.9 (116.4Î) ëïîåã 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé (ôïþëá íéîéíõíá) - I - VI 2020 Ç. äÒÕÇÉÅ ÐÒÏÇÎÏÚÙ: SM : SIDC classical method: based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - ÄÅËÁÂÒØ 2019; CM : SIDS combined method: the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - ÏËÔÑÂÒØ 2018; NOAA: - ÆÅ×ÒÁÌØ 2019. ðÏÓÌÅÄÎÉÅ Ä×Á, ÎÁ ÍÏÊ ×ÚÇÌÑÄ, ÎÅÁÄÅË×ÁÔÎÙ, ÔÁË ËÁË ÔÁËÉÈ ËÏÒÏÔËÉÈ ÎÉÚËÉÈ óã ÎÅ ÎÁÂÌÀÄÁÌÏÓØ....... îÁÂÌÀÄÁÅÍÙÅ ÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÙÅ ÓÔÒÕËÔÕÒÙ, ÓÏÏÔ×ÅÔÓÔ×ÕÀÝÉÅ 25 óã (> 38 ÎÁ 10.07 - × ÉÀÌÅ 3), ÍÏÖÎÏ Õ×ÉÄÅÔØ http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html. íåöäõîáòïäîïå åöåäîå÷îïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî (× ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ) úá éàìø 2019 Ç. óïçìáóîï äáîîùí 70 óïìîåþîùè ïâóåò÷áôïòéê: 1.. 5 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 9M 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 8 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 5 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê îáâìàäáåíùê ðïôïë òáäéïéúìõþåîéñ îá 10 ÓÍ (2800 MHz) úá éàìø 2019 Ç. é óçìáöåîîùê úá ñî÷áòø 2018 Ç. F ÉÀÌØ = 67.1 F*ÑÎ×. = 70.0 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê ðòåä÷áòéôåìøîùê áÒ-éîäåëó úá éàìø 2019 Ç. é óçìáöåî- îùê úá ñî÷áòø 2018 Ç. ðï äáîîùí çåïíáçîéôîïçï ãåîôòá ÷ ðïôóäáíå áÒ ÉÀÌØ.= 6 áÒ*ÑÎ×. = 6.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ïâúïò óïóôïñîéñ óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé, çåïüææåëôé÷îùè ñ÷ìåîéê, é éè ÷ïúäåêóô÷éê îá ïëïìïúåíîïå ëïóíéþåóëïå ðòïóôòáîóô÷ï îá ðåòéïä 29.07 - 04.08.2019Ç. é ðòïçîïú îá 05 - 13.08.2019 Ç. ëüòòéîçôïîï÷óëéê ïâïòïô 2020 (22,9.2019) úåíìñ ÷îå üëìéðôéëé: (1.7 - 1.9) ÇÒÁÄ. (ÚÏÎÁ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ S24 - N26) ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø óïìîãá âùìá îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷- îå, îá óïìîãå ðñôåî îå îáâìàäáìïóø (145 ÓÕÔ × 2019 ). òáóþ³ôîïå, óòåäîåå úîáþåîéå ïôîïóéôåìøîïçï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî ÷ íåöäõîá- òïäîïê óéóôåíå úá ðåòéïä óïóôá÷éìï W =0 (Wn=0). îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âõäåô ïóôá÷áôø- óñ îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. óòåäîåå úá ðåòéïä úîáþåîéå ïôîïóéôåìøîï- çï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî W=010+20/-10. ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âùìá îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. ïäéî ÷ùâòïó óïìîåþîïçï ÷ïìïëîá é ïäéî ëïòïîáìøîùê ÷ùâòïó ÷åýåóô÷á (31.07) îáâìà- äáìóñ úá ðåòéïä. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ÷óðùûëé âáììï÷ ïô í1 to tm te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME/to ÒÅÎÔ/ÏÐ J/m-2 ÷ó÷* to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 04.08 1640 NE Ë×ÁÄÒÁÎÔ ? * - ×ÙÂÒÏÓÙ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ×ÏÌÏËÏÎ; ** - ÜÒÕÐÔÉ×ÎÙÊ ÐÒÏÔÕÂÅÒÁÎÅà ÎÁ ÌÉÍÂÅ ---------------------------------------------------------------------- îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø ïöéäáåôóñ îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäáìéóø ëïòïîáìøîùå äùòù ó ëïïòäéîáôáíé: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅà å ËÏÎÅà S ËÏÎÅà W ËÏÎÅà Sch ïëð R G KA CH - N12L328 S12L344 S20L352 S10L342 3.2% 31.07 R3 - SDO, SOHO... CH*+ N27L263 N20L284 S12L256 N20L252 5.6% 4.07 R1 A SDO, SOHO... ðÅÒ×ÁÑ ëä ÂÙÌÁ ÎÅ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÁ; * ÎÁ 2È ÐÒÅÄÙÄÕÝÉÈ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÁÈ - ÚÁÌÉ× ÐÏÌÑÒÎÏÊ ëä; Sch - ÐÌÏÝÁÄØ ëä × % ÐÌÏÝÁÄÉ ×ÉÄÉÍÏÊ ÐÏÌÕÓÆÅÒÙ ×ÂÌÉÚÉ ÃÅÎÔÒÁÌØÎÏÇÏ ÍÅ- ÒÉÄÉÁÎÁ ÐÏ https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - ÎÅÔ ÄÁÎÎÙÈ; ïëð - ÄÁÔÁ ×ÏÚÍÏÖÎÏÇÏ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÏÇÏ ×ÏÚÍÕÝÅÎÉÑ × ïëð; R - ÓËÏÌØËÏ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÏ× ÎÁÂÌÀ- ÄÁÅÔÓÑ; G(0-5)-ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÏÓÔØ ÎÁ ÐÒÏÛÌÏÍ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÅ (ÓÒÅÄÎÉÅ ÛÉÒoÔÙ); A - ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÁÑ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ÏÂÓÔÁÎÏ×ËÁ. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ðáòáíåôòù óïìîåþîïçï ÷åôòá âìéúëé ë æïîï÷ùí. C 29.06 UT úîáë ðïìñ îåõóôïêþé÷ é þáóôï íåîñåôóñ, îï ÷ óòåäîåí ïóôá³ôóñ óï úîáëïí "-". óìåäõàýõà óåëôïòîõà çòáîéãõ úåíìñ äïìöîá ðòïêôé 4.08. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- éàìø 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 á÷çõóô Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 066 066 067 067 067 066 067 èbcg á6.4 á6.4 á6.4 á6.3 A6.3 A6.3 á6.3 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF -/~ -/~ - - -/~ -/~ -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 3.7E+6 4.0E+6 2.9E+6 3.3E+6 4.0E+6 4.3E+6 4.1å+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 5 8 8 8 4 2 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 10 6 12 3 3 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 -ÐÉËÏ×ÙÊ ÐÏÔÏË ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× Ó å>2 MeV ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ × e/(cm2-ster-day); Ie>2-ÍÁËÓÉÍÁÌØÎÁÑ ÉÎÔÅÎÓÉ×ÎÏÓÔØ ÐÏÔÏËÁ ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× ÎÁ ÇÅÏÓÔÁÃÉÏÎÁÒÎÙÈ ÏÒÂÉÔÁÈ ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ ÐÏ ÄÁÎÎÙÍ GOES 15 × (electrons/cm2-s-sr) - ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ Ó ÐÏÔÏËÏÍ >/=1000 pfu). ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòïîï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ îá çåï- óôáãéïîáòîùè ïòâéôáè îå îáâìàäáìóñ. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòï- îï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ ïöéäáåôóñ ó 6.08. çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá îá óòåäîéè ûéòïôáè ïóôá÷áìáóø óðïëïêîïê é óìá- âï÷ïúíõý³îîïê. îá óìåäõàýåê ðåòéïä ÷ïúíõý³îîáñ çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá, ÷ðìïôø äï õòï÷- îñ íáçîéôîïê âõòé ïöéäáåôóñ 5-6.08, ëïçäá úåíìñ âõäåô ðòïèïäéôø ÷ùóïëï- óëïòïóôîïê ðïôïë ïô ðòéüë÷áôïòéáìøîïê ëïòïîáìøîïê äùòù. ÷åòïñôîïóôø íá- ìïê íáçîéôîïê âõòé ~20%. ÷ ïóôáìøîùå äîé îáéâïìåå ÷åòïñôîá óðïëïêîáñ é óìáâï÷ïúíõý³îîáñ çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá. ïâúïò é ðòïçîïú óïóôá÷ìåî ðï íáôåòéáìáí óìõöâù óïìîãá âïõìäåò, óûá http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ãåîôòá óâïòá é ïâòáâïôëé óïìîåþîùè éîäåëóï÷, âòàóóåìø, âåìøçéñ http://sidc.oma.be/, éúíéòáî (ôòïéãë, òïóóéñ) http://www.izmiran.ru ÷.î. éÛËÏ×