----------------------------------------------------------------------------- óòåäîåíåóñþîïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá á÷çõóô 2019 Ç. WÉÀÌØ = 0,4 0.7 (n) þôï äá³ô äìñ 121 íåóñãá (2019, æå÷òáìø) òáú÷éôéñ ôåëõýåçï 24 óïìîåþîïçï ãéëìá óçìáöåîîïå óòåäîåíåóñþîïå þéóìï ðñôåî W*ÆÅ×. = 3.0 5.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*ÑÎ×. = 3.2 5.4 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ó 1 ÉÀÌÑ 2015 Ç. ãÅÎÔÒ × âÒÀÓÓÅÌÅ ÐÅÒÅÛ£Ì ÎÁ ÎÏ×ÕÀ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÕ ÐÏÄÓÞ£ÔÁ ÏÔÎÏ- ÓÉÔÅÌØÎÙÈ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ÐÑÔÅÎ É, ÐÒÁËÔÉÞÅÓËÉ, ×ÓÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ ÓÍÅÎÉÌÉÓØ ×Ï- ×Ó£Í ÐÒÏÎÕÍÅÒÏ×ÁÎÎÏÍ ÒÑÄÅ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÷ÏÌØÆÁ (ÓÍ. ÐÏ ÓÓÙÌËÅ). [åÖÅÄÎÅ×ÎÏÅ, ÓÒÅÄÎÅÍÅÓÑÞÎÏÅ É ÓÇÌÁÖÅÎÎÏÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ W × ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ÂÌÉÚËÏÅ Ë ÉÓÔÉÎÎÏÍÕ (× ÆÁÚÅ ÍÉÎÉÍÕÍÁ) ÍÏÖÎÏ ÐÏÌÕÞÉÔØ, ÕÍÎÏÖÁÑ ÎÁ ËÏÜÆÆÉÃÉÅÎÔ k = 0.6] óÌÕÖÂÁ óÏÌÎÃÁ SWPC NOAA × Ó×ÏÉÈ ÅÖÅÎÅÄÅÌØÎÙÈ ÔÁÂÌÉÃÁÈ "Recent Solar Indices" ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/weekly/RecentIndices.txt ÐÒÏÄÏÌÖÁÅÔ ÐÒÉÄÅÒÖÉ×ÁÔØÓÑ ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÙ, ÐÏÜÔÏÍÕ Ñ ÄÁÀ ÚÁ ÐÒÅÄÙÄÕÝÉÊ ÍÅÓÑà W* ÉÓÐÒÁ×ÌÅÎÎÏÅ, ÅÓÌÉ ÅÓÔØ ÎÅÏÂÈÏÄÉÍÏÓÔØ. îáþáìï 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé - ñî÷áòø 2009 Ç., W*min = 1.8 (2.2Î) ÷òåíñ íáëóéíõíá ôåëõýåçï 24 ãéëìá óá - áðòåìø 2014 Ç., W*max = 81.9 (116.4Î) ëïîåã 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé (ôïþëá íéîéíõíá) - I - VI 2020 Ç. äÒÕÇÉÅ ÐÒÏÇÎÏÚÙ: SM : SIDC classical method: based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - ÄÅËÁÂÒØ 2019; CM : SIDS combined method: the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - ÏËÔÑÂÒØ 2018; NOAA: - ÆÅ×ÒÁÌØ 2019. ðÏÓÌÅÄÎÉÅ Ä×Á, ÎÁ ÍÏÊ ×ÚÇÌÑÄ, ÎÅÁÄÅË×ÁÔÎÙ, ÔÁË ËÁË ÔÁËÉÈ ËÏÒÏÔËÉÈ ÎÉÚËÉÈ óã ÎÅ ÎÁÂÌÀÄÁÌÏÓØ....... îÁÂÌÀÄÁÅÍÙÅ ÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÙÅ ÓÔÒÕËÔÕÒÙ, ÓÏÏÔ×ÅÔÓÔ×ÕÀÝÉÅ 25 óã (> 38 ÎÁ 10.07 - × ÉÀÌÅ 3), ÍÏÖÎÏ Õ×ÉÄÅÔØ http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html. íåöäõîáòïäîïå åöåäîå÷îïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî (× ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ) úá á÷çõóô 2019 Ç. óïçìáóîï äáîîùí 68 óïìîåþîùè ïâóåò÷áôïòéê: 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 11 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 12í 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê îáâìàäáåíùê ðïôïë òáäéïéúìõþåîéñ îá 10 ÓÍ (2800 MHz) úá á÷çõóô 2019 Ç. é óçìáöåîîùê úá æå÷òáìø 2019 Ç. F Á×Ç. = 67.1 F*ÆÅ×. = 69.8 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê ðòåä÷áòéôåìøîùê áÒ-éîäåëó úá á÷çõóô 2019 Ç. é óçìáöåî- îùê úá æå÷òáìø 2019 Ç. ðï äáîîùí çåïíáçîéôîïçï ãåîôòá ÷ ðïôóäáíå áÒ Á×Ç.= 6.8 áÒ*ÆÅ×. = 6.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ïâúïò óïóôïñîéñ óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé, çåïüææåëôé÷îùè ñ÷ìåîéê, é éè ÷ïúäåêóô÷éê îá ïëïìïúåíîïå ëïóíéþåóëïå ðòïóôòáîóô÷ï îá ðåòéïä 26.08 - 01.09.2019Ç. é ðòïçîïú îá 02 - 09.09.2019 Ç. ëüòòéîçôïîï÷óëéê ïâïòïô 2021 (22,9.08.2019) úåíìñ ÷îå üëìéðôéëé: (2.9 - 3.4) ÇÒÁÄ. (ÚÏÎÁ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ S23 - N29) ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø óïìîãá âùìá îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷- îå, îá óïìîãå ðñôåî îå îáâìàäáìïóø (169 ÓÕÔ × 2019 Ç). òáóþ³ôîïå, óòåäîåå úîáþåîéå ïôîïóéôåìøîïçï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî ÷ íåöäõîá- òïäîïê óéóôåíå úá ðåòéïä óïóôá÷éìï W = 1+1/-1 (Wn = 2+1/-2). îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âõäåô ïóôá÷áôø- óñ îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. óòåäîåå úá ðåòéïä úîáþåîéå ïôîïóéôåìøîï- çï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî W=010+10/-10. ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âùìá îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. ïäéî ëïòïîáìø- îùê ÷ùâòïó ÷åýåóô÷á (27.08) îáâìàäáìóñ úá ðåòéïä. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ÷óðùûëé âáììï÷ ïô í1 to tm te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME/to ÒÅÎÔ/ÏÐ J/m-2 ÷ó÷* to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 29.08 >0948 >0104 S48W42L226 7 29.08 >0948 >0104 S44W24L244 5 31.08 2230 N45E05L241 ? *-×ÙÂÒÏÓÙ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ×ÏÌÏËÏÎ (DSF); **-ÜÒÕÐÔÉ×ÎÙÊ ÐÒÏÔÕÂÅÒÁÎÅà ÎÁ ÌÉÍÂÅ (EPL) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø ïöéäáåôóñ îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäáìéóø ëïòïîáìøîùå äùòù ó ëïïòäéîáôáíé: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅà å ËÏÎÅà S ËÏÎÅà W ËÏÎÅà Sch ïëð R G KA CH - N05L329 S15L342 S30L331 S05L314 3.9% 27.08 4 - SOHO, SDO.... CH + N28L332 N15L357 N10L347 N18L327 3.2% 31.08 3 G1 SOHO, SDO.... Sch - ÐÌÏÝÁÄØ ëä × % ÐÌÏÝÁÄÉ ×ÉÄÉÍÏÊ ÐÏÌÕÓÆÅÒÙ ×ÂÌÉÚÉ ÃÅÎÔÒÁÌØÎÏÇÏ ÍÅ- ÒÉÄÉÁÎÁ ÐÏ https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - ÎÅÔ ÄÁÎÎÙÈ; ïëð - ÄÁÔÁ ×ÏÚÍÏÖÎÏÇÏ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÏÇÏ ×ÏÚÍÕÝÅÎÉÑ × ïëð; R - ÓËÏÌØËÏ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÏ× ÎÁÂÌÀ- ÄÁÅÔÓÑ; G(0-5)-ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÏÓÔØ ÎÁ ÐÒÏÛÌÏÍ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÅ (ÓÒÅÄÎÉÅ ÛÉÒoÔÙ); A - ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÁÑ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ÏÂÓÔÁÎÏ×ËÁ. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ðáòáíåôòù óïìîåþîïçï ÷åôòá äï 31.08 âùìé âìéúëé ë æïîï÷ùí. C 4.08/0853 UT úîáë ðïìñ îåõóôïêþé÷ é þáóôï íåîñåôóñ, îï ÷ óòåäîåí ïó- ôá³ôóñ óï úîáëïí "+". 27-30.08 úîáë óåëôïòá âùì "-". óìåäõàýõà óåëôïò- îõà çòáîéãõ úåíìñ äïìöîá ðòïêôé 16.09. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- á÷çõóô 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 óåîôñâòø Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 012 F10.7 067 066 066 066 067 066 067 èbcg á6.0 á6.0 á6.1 á6.1 A6.0 A6.1 á6.3 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 010 msh N 1 IMF + +/- - - -/+ + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.0E+7 2.9E+6 3.0E+6 4.0E+6 3.9E+6 1.0E+8 8.0å+8 GOES Ie>2 314 8408 53007 pfu Ap 6 10 5 3 10 38 45 nô Dst -11 -34 -57 nô KIOTO Amsc 6 11 5 4 10 35 41 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 -ÐÉËÏ×ÙÊ ÐÏÔÏË ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× Ó å>2 MeV ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ × e/(cm2-ster-day); Ie>2-ÍÁËÓÉÍÁÌØÎÁÑ ÉÎÔÅÎÓÉ×ÎÏÓÔØ ÐÏÔÏËÁ ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× ÎÁ ÇÅÏÓÔÁÃÉÏÎÁÒÎÙÈ ÏÒÂÉÔÁÈ ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ ÐÏ ÄÁÎÎÙÍ GOES 15 × (electrons/cm2-s-sr) - ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ Ó ÐÏÔÏËÏÍ >/=1000 pfu). ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòïîï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ îá çåï- óôáãéïîáòîùè ïòâéôáè îáþáìóñ 31/1540 é îáâìàäáìóñ 31.08-01.09. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòï- îï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ ïöéäáåôóñ 2-9 óåîôñâòñ. çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá îá óòåäîéè ûéòïôáè ïóôá÷áìáóø óðïëïêîïê é óìá- âï÷ïúíõý³îîïê äï îáþáìá óõôïë 31.08, ëïçäá úåíìñ ÷ïûìá ÷ ÷ùóïëïóëïòï- óôîïê ðïôïë óïìîåþîïçï ÷åôòá ïô òåëõòòåîôîïê ëïòïîáìøîïê äùòù óå÷åòîï- çï ðïìõûáòéñ "+" ðïìñòîïóôé. íáìáñ íáçîéôîáñ âõòñ (G1, Ams=50, ÄÌÉÔ.= 48 Þ.) ðï äáîîùí éúíéòáî é (G2, Ams=~44 , ÄÌÉÔ.=>48 Þ.) ðï äáîîùí ãåî- ôòá ÷ âïìäåòå ïóõýåóô÷éìáóø 31.08-02.09. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå îáéâïìåå ÷åòïñôîá óðïëïêîáñ é óìáâï÷ïúíõý³îîáñ çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá. ïâúïò é ðòïçîïú óïóôá÷ìåî ðï íáôåòéáìáí óìõöâù óïìîãá âïõìäåò, óûá http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ãåîôòá óâïòá é ïâòáâïôëé óïìîåþîùè éîäåëóï÷, âòàóóåìø, âåìøçéñ http://sidc.oma.be/, éúíéòáî (ôòïéãë, òïóóéñ) http://www.izmiran.ru ÷.î. éÛËÏ×