----------------------------------------------------------------------------- óòåäîåíåóñþîïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá óåîôñâòø 2019 Ç. WÓÅÎ. = 0,7 1.1 (n) þôï äá³ô äìñ 122 íåóñãá (2019, íáòô) òáú÷éôéñ ôåëõýåçï 24 óïìîåþîïçï ãéëìá óçìáöåîîïå óòåäîåíåóñþîïå þéóìï ðñôåî W*ÍÁÒÔ = 2.8 4.6 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*ÆÅ×. = 3.0 5.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ó 1 ÉÀÌÑ 2015 Ç. ãÅÎÔÒ × âÒÀÓÓÅÌÅ ÐÅÒÅÛ£Ì ÎÁ ÎÏ×ÕÀ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÕ ÐÏÄÓÞ£ÔÁ ÏÔÎÏ- ÓÉÔÅÌØÎÙÈ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ÐÑÔÅÎ É, ÐÒÁËÔÉÞÅÓËÉ, ×ÓÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ ÓÍÅÎÉÌÉÓØ ×Ï- ×Ó£Í ÐÒÏÎÕÍÅÒÏ×ÁÎÎÏÍ ÒÑÄÅ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÷ÏÌØÆÁ (ÓÍ. ÐÏ ÓÓÙÌËÅ). [åÖÅÄÎÅ×ÎÏÅ, ÓÒÅÄÎÅÍÅÓÑÞÎÏÅ É ÓÇÌÁÖÅÎÎÏÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ W × ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ÂÌÉÚËÏÅ Ë ÉÓÔÉÎÎÏÍÕ (× ÆÁÚÅ ÍÉÎÉÍÕÍÁ) ÍÏÖÎÏ ÐÏÌÕÞÉÔØ, ÕÍÎÏÖÁÑ ÎÁ ËÏÜÆÆÉÃÉÅÎÔ k = 0.6] óÌÕÖÂÁ óÏÌÎÃÁ SWPC NOAA × Ó×ÏÉÈ ÅÖÅÎÅÄÅÌØÎÙÈ ÔÁÂÌÉÃÁÈ "Recent Solar Indices" ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/weekly/RecentIndices.txt ÐÒÏÄÏÌÖÁÅÔ ÐÒÉÄÅÒÖÉ×ÁÔØÓÑ ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÙ, ÐÏÜÔÏÍÕ Ñ ÄÁÀ ÚÁ ÐÒÅÄÙÄÕÝÉÊ ÍÅÓÑà W* ÉÓÐÒÁ×ÌÅÎÎÏÅ, ÅÓÌÉ ÅÓÔØ ÎÅÏÂÈÏÄÉÍÏÓÔØ. îáþáìï 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé - ñî÷áòø 2009 Ç., W*min = 1.8 (2.2Î) ÷òåíñ íáëóéíõíá ôåëõýåçï 24 ãéëìá óá - áðòåìø 2014 Ç., W*max = 81.9 (116.4Î) ëïîåã 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé (ôïþëá íéîéíõíá) - I - VI 2020 Ç. äÒÕÇÉÅ ÐÒÏÇÎÏÚÙ: SM : SIDC classical method: based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - ÄÅËÁÂÒØ 2019; CM : SIDS combined method: the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - ÏËÔÑÂÒØ 2018; NOAA: - ÆÅ×ÒÁÌØ 2019. ðÏÓÌÅÄÎÉÅ Ä×Á, ÎÁ ÍÏÊ ×ÚÇÌÑÄ, ÎÅÁÄÅË×ÁÔÎÙ, ÔÁË ËÁË ÔÁËÉÈ ËÏÒÏÔËÉÈ ÎÉÚËÉÈ óã ÎÅ ÎÁÂÌÀÄÁÌÏÓØ....... îÁÂÌÀÄÁÅÍÙÅ ÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÙÅ ÓÔÒÕËÔÕÒÙ, ÓÏÏÔ×ÅÔÓÔ×ÕÀÝÉÅ 25 óã (> 38 ÎÁ 10.07 - × ÉÀÌÅ 3), ÍÏÖÎÏ Õ×ÉÄÅÔØ http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html. íåöäõîáòïäîïå åöåäîå÷îïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî (× ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ) úá óåîôñâòø 2019 Ç. óïçìáóîï äáîîùí 70 óïìîåþîùè ïâóåò÷áôïòéê: 1.. 14 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 2.. 14 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 5 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê îáâìàäáåíùê ðïôïë òáäéïéúìõþåîéñ îá 10 ÓÍ (2800 MHz) úá óåîôñâòø 2019 Ç. é óçìáöåîîùê úá íáòô 2019 Ç. F ÓÅÎ. = 68.1 F*ÍÁÒÔ = 69.7 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê ðòåä÷áòéôåìøîùê áÒ-éîäåëó úá óåîôñâòø 2019 Ç. é óçìáöåî- îùê úá íáòô 2019 Ç. ðï äáîîùí çåïíáçîéôîïçï ãåîôòá ÷ ðïôóäáíå áÒ ÓÅÎ.= 10 áÒ*ÍÁÒÔ = 6.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ïâúïò óïóôïñîéñ óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé, çåïüææåëôé÷îùè ñ÷ìåîéê, é éè ÷ïúäåêóô÷éê îá ïëïìïúåíîïå ëïóíéþåóëïå ðòïóôòáîóô÷ï îá ðåòéïä 30.09 - 06.10.2019Ç. é ðòïçîïú îá 07 - 13.10.2019 Ç. ëüòòéîçôïîï÷óëéê ïâïòïô 2022 (19,16.09.2019) úåíìñ ÷îå üëìéðôéëé: (6.9 - 6.6) ÇÒÁÄ. (ÚÏÎÁ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ S20 - N30) ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø óïìîãá âùìá îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷- îå, ðñôîá îá óïìîãå ïôíåþåîù ìéûø 1 é 2.10, ÷ ïóôáìøîïå ÷òåíñ óïìî- ãå âùìï âåóðñôåîîùí (202 ÓÕÔ. × 2019 Ç. - 73%). òáóþ³ôîïå, óòåäîåå úîáþåîéå ïôîïóéôåìøîïçï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî ÷ íåöäõîáòïäîïê óéó- ôåíå úá ðåòéïä óïóôá÷éìï W = 2+5/-2 (Wn = 4+7/-4). îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá 1 é 2.09 îáâìàäáìáóø îåâïìøûáñ çòõððá ðñôåî. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âõäåô ïóôá÷áôø- óñ îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. óòåäîåå úá ðåòéïä úîáþåîéå ïôîïóéôåìøîï- çï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî W=010+10/-10. ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âùìá îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. ïäéî ÷ùâòïó óïì- îåþîïçï ÷ïìïëîá âåú ëïòïîáìøîùè ÷ùâòïóï÷ ÷åýåóô÷á ïôíåþåî úá ðåòéïä. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ÷óðùûëé âáììï÷ ïô í1 to tm te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME/to ÒÅÎÔ/ÏÐ J/m-2 ÷ó÷* to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 03.10 0554 N42W20L142 10 *-×ÙÂÒÏÓÙ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ×ÏÌÏËÏÎ (DSF); **-ÜÒÕÐÔÉ×ÎÙÊ ÐÒÏÔÕÂÅÒÁÎÅà ÎÁ ÌÉÍÂÅ (EPL) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø ïöéäáåôóñ îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäáìéóø ëïòïîáìøîùå äùòù ó ëïïòäéîáôáíé: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅà å ËÏÎÅà S ËÏÎÅà W ËÏÎÅà Sch ïëð R G KA CH + N20L134 N17L143 S02L137 N03L132 1.9% 9.10 1 SDO, SOHO... Sch - ÐÌÏÝÁÄØ ëä × % ÐÌÏÝÁÄÉ ×ÉÄÉÍÏÊ ÐÏÌÕÓÆÅÒÙ ×ÂÌÉÚÉ ÃÅÎÔÒÁÌØÎÏÇÏ ÍÅ- ÒÉÄÉÁÎÁ ÐÏ https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - ÎÅÔ ÄÁÎÎÙÈ; ïëð - ÄÁÔÁ ×ÏÚÍÏÖÎÏÇÏ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÏÇÏ ×ÏÚÍÕÝÅÎÉÑ × ïëð; R - ÓËÏÌØËÏ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÏ× ÎÁÂÌÀ- ÄÁÅÔÓÑ; G(0-5)-ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÏÓÔØ ÎÁ ÐÒÏÛÌÏÍ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÅ (ÓÒÅÄÎÉÅ ÛÉÒoÔÙ); A - ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÁÑ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ÏÂÓÔÁÎÏ×ËÁ. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ðáòáíåôòù óïìîåþîïçï ÷åôòá âùìé âìéúëé ë æïîï÷ùí. C 23.09/0540 UT úîáë ðïìñ îåõóôïêþé÷ é þáóôï íåîñìóñ, îï ÷ óòåäîåí ïóôá÷áìóñ óï úîáëïí "+". óìåäõàýõà óåëôïòîõà çòáîéãõ úåíìñ ÷ïúíïöîï ðòïêä³ô 12.10. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- óåîôñâòø 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 óåîôñâòø Wus 000 011 011 000 000 000 000 F10.7 068 069 068 068 068 068 067 èbcg á2.6 á2.3 á2.4 á2.4 A2.1 A2.2 á2.1 GOES Sp 000 012 000 000 000 000 000 msh N 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 3.8E+8 1.2E+8 1.6E+8 2.6E+8 1.7E+8 9.2E+7 7.4å+7 GOES Ie>2 45138 8373 3906 5991 5971 3318 2040 pfu Ap 15 13 7 5 7 8 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 14 8 8 4 7 9 5 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 -ÐÉËÏ×ÙÊ ÐÏÔÏË ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× Ó å>2 MeV ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ × e/(cm2-ster-day); Ie>2-ÍÁËÓÉÍÁÌØÎÁÑ ÉÎÔÅÎÓÉ×ÎÏÓÔØ ÐÏÔÏËÁ ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× ÎÁ ÇÅÏÓÔÁÃÉÏÎÁÒÎÙÈ ÏÒÂÉÔÁÈ ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ ÐÏ ÄÁÎÎÙÍ GOES 15 × (electrons/cm2-s-sr) - ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ Ó ÐÏÔÏËÏÍ >/=1000 pfu). ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòïîï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ îá çåï- óôáãéïîáòîùè ïòâéôáè îáþáìóñ 28.09/1310 UT é îáâìàäáìóñ 28.09-6.10. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòï- îï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ ïöéäáåôóñ 7-8.10. çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá îá óòåäîéè ûéòïôáè ïóôá÷áìáóø óðïëïêîïê é óìá- âï÷ïúíõý³îîïê. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå îáéâïìåå ÷åòïñôîá óðïëïêîáñ é óìáâï÷ïúíõý³îîáñ çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá. ïâúïò é ðòïçîïú óïóôá÷ìåî ðï íáôåòéáìáí óìõöâù óïìîãá âïõìäåò, óûá http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ãåîôòá óâïòá é ïâòáâïôëé óïìîåþîùè éîäåëóï÷, âòàóóåìø, âåìøçéñ http://sidc.oma.be/, éúíéòáî (ôòïéãë, òïóóéñ) http://www.izmiran.ru ÷.î. éÛËÏ×