Solar Activity Forecast
2024/03/04
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2024 HAS MADE
Wfeb = 82.9 124.6(in new system)
THAT GIVES FOR 44 MONTH (AUGUST 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR
CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*aug = 82.46 124.0 - Χ ΞΟΧΟΚ ΣΙΣΤΕΝΕ
W*jul = 82.7 124.3 - Χ ΞΟΧΟΚ ΣΙΣΤΕΝΕ
On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link).
Daily, monthly average and smoothed values of W in the old system
~close to the true ones can be obtained by multiplying by k=0.665.
THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n)
THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE III - VI 2024 - Wmax=90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031;
PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR FEBRUARY 2024
(62 odservatories) :
1..118 6..157 11..167ν 16..145 21.. 51m 26..137
2..123 7..150 12..157 17..120 22.. 58 27..120
3..127 8..165 13..138 18..102 23..106 28..131
4..137 9..129 14..143 19.. 73 24..111 29..128
5..157 10..150 15..147 20.. 54 25..115
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)
ON FEBRUARY 2024, AND SMOOTHES ON AUGUST 2023
F10.7feb = 173.28 F*10.7aug= 158.5
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON FEBRUARY 2024, AND
SMOOTHES ON AUGUST 2023
Ap feb=5.6 Ap*aug = 10.2
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REVIEW OF THE STATE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA,
AND THEIR IMPACTS ON NEAR-EARTH SPACE
on 01 - 29.02.2024
Carrington Rotations 2280-2281 (18,27.01-14.61.02.2024)
Earth out of ecliptic (-6 - -7 deg)
(S35 - N28 is zone of geoefficiency)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO LOW
LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 35 SUNSPOT GROUPS,
INCLUDING ONE BIG AND TWO MEDIUM SIZES AND UP 8 LOCALIZED ON THE
SOUTH HEMISPHERE.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON HIGH AND LOW LEVELS. 5 FLARE WERE OF X-RAY
CLASS X, 50- CLASS M AND 358- CLASS C, 12 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION
AND 268 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, FIVE OF THEM WAS TYPE IV (angular
width 360 deg), TWO- CLASS III(180-270 deg), 23- TYPE II (90-180
deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Οp J/m-2
20240202 0252 0301 0305 S18E60L104 M1.2 3.7E-03 13571 RII/3|144
20240204 1140 1153 1208 S15E86L055 M1.4/SF 1.5E-02 13576
20240204 1622 1638 1646 S15E79L055 M1.5 1.5E-02 13576
20240204 1705 1712 1719 S15E77L055 M1.3 1.7E-03 13576
20240204 1816 1829 1843 S36W46L178 M1.1 1.2E-02 13575
20240204 2052 2057 2101 S20E83L055 M1.2 4.4E-03 13576 RII
20240204 2220 2228 2234 S14E86L055 M2.1 1.5E-02 13576
20240204 2234 2237 2242 S15E73L055 M2.7 1.2E-02 13576
20240204 2245 2302 2248 S09E89L055 M1.8 13576
20240205 0413 0447 0428 S16E74L055 M2.2/SF 1.8E-03 13576
20240205 0436 0456 0438 S15E71L055 M1.5 13576
20240205 0610 0626 0622 S20E77L055 M1.5/SF 6.4E-03 13576
20240206 0215 0247 0228 S39W62L178 M2.2 6.3E-03 13575 RII/1|0431 IV/2
20240206 0237 0331 0312 S40W63L178 M4.2 1.3E-01 13575 RII/2|1063 IV/2
20240206 1838 1849 1907 S36W72L178 M1.3 1.9E-02 13575
20240207 0304 0349 0331 S39W78L178 M5.2/SF 1.4E-01 13575
20240207 1741 1822 1805 S15E38L055 M1.4 3.0E-02 13576
20240208 1241 1312 1337 S18E28L055 M3.4 7.5E-02 13576
20240208 1411 1418 1425 S15W83L172 M1.2 8.9E-03 13564
20240208 1517 1523 1527 S15E25L055 M1.8/1F 5.8E-03 13576
20240208 1856 1902 1906 S15E24L055 M1.3/1F 3.5E-03 13576
20240208 2316 0014 2355 S35W85L178 M4.0/SF 7.6E-03 13575 EPL
20240209 0036 0041 0045 S16E17L055 M3.1/1N 2.8E-03 13576
20240209 0042 0051 0100 S14E06L055 M1.5/SF 1.1E-02 13576
20240209 1253 1332 1314 S37W85L178 X3.4/SF 4.3E-01 13575 RIV/2
20240209 1754 1807 1800 S14E07L055 M1.2 7.4E-03 13576 CME
20240210 0042 0100 0051 S14E05L055 M1.5/SF 1.1E-02 13576
20240210 0304 0411 0354 S15E88L178 M3.3 9.6E-02 13575 RIV/2 CMEIV/0336
20240210 2256 2314 2307 S12W12L055 M9.0 4.5E-02 13576 RII/3|1856 IV/3 CMEIV/2400
20240211 2235 2250 2245 N10E88L M1.1 5.2E-03
20240212 0323 0348 0353 S17W26L055 M6.5/2B 2.8E-02 13576
20240212 1250 1308 1321 S16W28L055 M1.1/1F 1.4E-02 13576
20240212 1531 1548 1603 S12W34L055 M1.4/1F 2.0E-02 13576
20240212 2035 2117 2151 N28E86L M2.6 9.3E-02
20240212 2200 2303 2204 S14W36L055 M1.6/SF 13576
20240214 0302 0310 0323 N07W26L034 M1.0 9.5E-03 13582 RII /IV
20240214 0726 0742 0735 S17W57L055 M1.0/SF 5.6E-03 13576
20240215 1650 1707 1721 S13W79L055 M1.8 2.1E-02 13576
20240216 0239 0251 0257 S13W88L055 M1.5 8.1E-03 13576
20240216 0642 0658 0653 S19W82L055 X2.5/1N 8.4E-02 13576 RII/3|753 IV/2 CME
20240216 2157 2216 2209 S14W88L055 M3.0 1.6E-02 13576
20240221 2252 2307 2314 N17E39L224 X1.8 9.9E-02 13590
20240221 2358 0014 0031 S35E85L224 M1.5 2.6E-02 13590
20240222 0617 0632 0640 N16E35L224 X1.7/2B 8.8E-02 13590
20240222 2029 2046 2103 N18E29L224 M4.8/2B 5.3E-02 13590
20240222 2208 2234 2243 N17E27L224 X6.3 4.5E-01 13590
20240223 1312 1328 1354 N16E19L224 M1.0 1.9E-02 13590
20240223 1541 1553 1606 N18E18L224 M1.4/1N 1.8E-02 13590
20240223 1726 1747 1807 N18E18L224 M2.6/1N 3.9E-02 13590
20240224_0621 0644 0634 N18E08L224 M4.5 3.3E-02 13590
20240224_1032 1113 1057 N15E08L224 M2.2 2.7E-02 13590
20240224_1103 1125 1118 N18E05L224 M3.6 3.8E-02 13590
20240224_1154 1204 1159 N16E10L224 M1.0 5.1E-03 13590
20240225 1647 1740 1722 N14W07L224 M2.1/1N 4.6E-02 13590
20240228 1624 1854 2115 N19W58L224 M1.5 1.6E-01 13590
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
20240204 0917 0935 EPL 0.11 13576
20240205 >0010 >1454 S55E23L143 8
20240206 0812 >1543 N43E10LL206 18 CME
20240208 2000 <0649 S36W06L076 9
20240209 0012 0214 S35W85L346 EPL 0.06 M4.0 13575
20240210 0613 S26E05L059 13576 CME/0649
20240211 0640 N28E19L061 15 CME/0812
20200216 0200 N31W18L317 20 CME/0312
20240221 1500 NW-quadrant >10
20240221 1542 1604 SE-limb EPL 0.56/B.9A
20240221 1725 1743 N23W43L226 31
20240228 0900 S11E30L216 12 C5.1 13592
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ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecrafts
CH + S10L161 S37L155 S65L178 S50L182 4.8% 02.02 2 - SDO,HINOTORI
CH + S48L069 S60L029 S69L079 S67L136 2,5% 1 - SDO,HINOTORI
CH - N15L273 S25L227 S30L247 N05L279 3,70% 6 - SDO,HINOTORI
CH - N65L241 N60L230 N27L265 N50L271 2,40% 3 - SDO,HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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IN JANUARY THE EARTH PASSED NTXT THE SECTOR BOUNDARIES OF THE INTER-
PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS:
20240107 +/- 1753 UT; 20240115 -/+ 0945; 20240123 +/- 1940;
Pr>10 MeV: to - 29.01/0300 UT; max-136 pfu 29.01/1800; te - 2.02/19
to - 09.02/1530 UT; max-187 pfu 09.02/2355; te - 12.02/0550
to - 12.02/0554 UT; max-118 pfu 13.02/0615; te - 20.02/24
to - 16.02/0730 UT max- 7 pfu 16.02/1030; te - 18.02/0800
A HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRONS WITH E>2 MeV NO
OBSERVED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL PERIOD.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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